Existing Home Sales Rose 0.5% to 4.13 Million in November
Min 1: Inventory Decreased to 1.43 Million Units
Total inventory fell 5.9% in November from October to 1.43 million units, though up 7.5% year-over-year according to NAR. At current sales rate, unsold inventory sits at 4.2 months supply, down from 4.4 months in October but up from 3.8 months November 2024. Inventory declining less than usual in fall period—only down 8% from July peak while usually down 13% or more seasonally by November. Inventory between 4.5 to 6 months supply generally considered balanced market, so current 4.2 months indicates continued tight supply. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at all-time high, homeowners in no rush listing properties during winter months. Median time on market increased to 36 days from 34 days last month and 32 days November 2024. Wage growth outpacing home price gains which improves housing affordability, though future affordability could be hampered if housing supply fails keeping pace with demand.
Min 2: Median Price Hit Record November Reading at $409,200
Median sales price of existing homes sold reached $409,200, up 1.2% from November 2024 and highest November reading on record according to NAR. That marks 29th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Median condominium price rose 0.1% year-over-year to $358,600. Typical price of sold condo ran 13.5% lower than typical single-family home though purchase price doesn't include condominium association fees which are rising and making purchases more expensive. NAR uses median measurement which can skew to what end of market selling most—high end currently doing much better than low end. Sales of homes priced $100,000 to $250,000 range down nearly 8% from year ago while homes priced above $1 million up 1.4%. Average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in November hit 6.24% according to Freddie Mac, down from 6.25% October and 6.81% year ago—lowest level in over year.
Min 3: First-Time Buyers Remained at 30% of Sales
First-time homebuyers made up 30% of sales, unchanged from November 2024 but down from 32% October, while historically they comprise about 40%. Cash transactions represented 27% of deals, down from 29% month ago but up from 25% year ago. All-cash buyers less affected by changes in interest rates. Individual investors or second-home buyers accounted for 18% of transactions, up from 16% last month and from 13% November 2024. Just 2% of sales were distressed sales including foreclosures and short sales, unchanged from month ago and November 2024. Single-family home sales outperformed condominium sales throughout year. Regional breakdown showed Northeast posting 4.1% gain and South rising 1.1% while Midwest fell 2.0% and West remained unchanged.
Min 4: Sales Stuck in Lowest Gears Since Late 2022
The 4.13 million annualized sales rate represents stabilization but sales stuck in lowest of gears since late 2022 according to analysis. As long as market continues operating in this range, difficult drawing conclusions about bigger picture momentum. Population-adjusted version shows existing home sales 35.3% below turn-of-century levels. Sales volatile for first year following Great Recession with monthly sales ranging 3.45 million to 5.44 million units. Same volatility followed most recent recession with sales ranging 3.85 million to 6.73 million units. Census Bureau mid-month population estimates show 23.5% increase in U.S. population since turn of century while existing home sales 21.0% below NAR's January 2000 estimate. The weak sales reflect mortgage rate lock-in keeping sellers frozen in place combined with elevated home prices and economic uncertainty weighing on potential buyers.
Min 5: Investment Strategy Targets Distressed Inventory Shadow
The combination of stalled inventory growth and minimal distressed sales at 2% of transactions creates opportunity for investors pursuing off-market shadow inventory. Homeowners sitting in properties they want to sell but haven't listed due to uncertainty comprise potential wholesale targets. An investor who identifies 100 homeowners underwater on payments or facing life changes—job loss, divorce, inheritance—and makes direct offers at 85% on dollar secures 10 accepted contracts. These properties acquired $300,000 each for $255,000, renovated for $25,000, resold at $310,000 retail after 90 days generates $30,000 gross profit per deal minus $15,000 transaction costs for $15,000 net per property—total $150,000 profit on $2.8 million deployed represents 5.4% returns in single quarter. Strategy requires targeted marketing identifying distressed sellers before properties hit MLS, pre-qualifying deals to avoid overpaying, moving quickly on renovations and resale.
The Takeaway
Existing home sales rose 0.5% to 4.13 million annualized rate in November marking third straight monthly gain and highest level since February per NAR December 19 report, though sales stuck in lowest gears since late 2022 with population-adjusted version 35.3% below 2000 levels. Inventory fell 5.9% month-over-month to 1.43 million units equaling 4.2 months supply, down from 4.4 months October despite 7.5% year-over-year gain as distressed sales at historic low 2% and housing wealth at all-time high keep homeowners from listing during winter. Median price hit $409,200 up 1.2% year-over-year marking 29th consecutive monthly increase and highest November reading on record, with homes priced $100,000 to $250,000 down 8% while homes above $1 million up 1.4% showing bifurcated market. First-time buyers remained stuck at 30% of sales versus historical 40% while investors rose to 18% from 13% year ago as mortgage rates at 6.24% down from 6.81% year earlier but still limiting affordability. Investors targeting shadow inventory of homeowners wanting to sell but haven't listed secure 10 percent acceptance rate offering 85 cents on dollar, renovating for $25,000, reselling at retail generating $15,000 net per property after transaction costs—$150,000 profit on $2.8 million deployed delivers 5.4% quarterly returns requiring targeted marketing and quick execution.
