Florida Closed Sales Jump 3.9% as Sunbelt Recovery Begins

Min 1:

Florida's housing market reported more closed sales and more new pending sales in February compared to a year ago, while median prices continued to ease but at a slower pace according to Florida Realtors® data released March 16, 2026.

Closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 18,379, up 3.9% compared to February 2025, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,060, up 8.6% year-over-year.

"Florida's housing market continued building momentum in February as we move toward the spring buying season," said 2026 Florida Realtors President Chuck Bonfiglio. "Closed sales and pending sales both rose year-over-year, showing that buyers remain active across many parts of the state."

This marks a significant reversal for Sun Belt markets that struggled throughout 2025.

Florida previously saw prices declining as oversupply from pandemic-era construction met slowing inbound migration. The state appeared in multiple "biggest price decline" lists as Texas and Florida cooled from overheated pandemic levels.

Florida Realtors Chief Economist Brad O'Connor called the February numbers progress for a market that "has at the very least bottomed out in terms of sales and is inching its way back upward."

Looking at 2026 trends so far, he expects "a more normal level of listings coming on to the market with slightly improved numbers of pending sales."

Min 2:

The numbers show Florida's market stabilizing rather than rebounding explosively.

The statewide supply of single-family existing homes stood at a 4.8-months' supply in February while existing condo-townhouse properties reached a 9.3-months' supply.

That condo-townhouse inventory level signals continued weakness in the segment.

A 9.3-months' supply sits well above the 4-5 months considered balanced market conditions. Single-family inventory at 4.8 months approaches balance but indicates neither strong seller nor buyer advantage.

Compare Florida's recovery to national patterns and the regional divergence becomes clear. NAR reported existing-home sales increased 1.7% nationally in February 2026.

Month-over-month sales rose in the Midwest, South, and West but fell in the Northeast. Year-over-year sales rose in the South—driven partly by Florida's improvement—and declined in the Northeast, Midwest, and West.

Florida's 3.9% increase in single-family closed sales outpaced the national 1.7% gain, suggesting the state is recovering faster than broader trends.

But the recovery starts from a lower base after Florida experienced some of the steepest declines during the 2024-2025 correction period.

Min 3:

Compare Florida's current inventory dynamics to the oversupply crisis of 2025 and the improvement becomes obvious.

Throughout 2025, Florida markets appeared regularly on lists of highest cancellation rates, biggest price declines, and slowest sales.

San Antonio led cancellation rates at 21.2% in January 2026, but Florida metros like Tampa, Jacksonville, and Orlando consistently ranked in top-five cancellation lists throughout late 2025.

Those high cancellation rates signaled buyer reluctance and oversupply issues.

Now pending sales are rising year-over-year according to February 2026 data.

That indicates buyers increasingly committing to purchases rather than backing out during inspection periods. When pending sales rise while cancellations moderate, it signals genuine demand recovery rather than temporary spikes.

The slower price decline pace mentioned in Florida Realtors data matters for investors. Rapidly falling prices create uncertainty and delay buying decisions.

Slowly easing prices with rising sales volume indicate market finding equilibrium—the point where buyers feel confident purchasing without fear of immediate value loss.

Min 4:

Individual buyers face different Florida market dynamics than a year ago.

The 7.9% average price discount buyers received nationally in 2025—the largest since 2012 according to Redfin—created negotiating leverage for Florida purchasers.

That buyer leverage persists but moderates as sales volume rises.

When closed sales jump 3.9% and pending sales increase, sellers gain slight pricing power. The market shifts from extreme buyer advantage toward balance, reducing the magnitude of concessions sellers must offer.

Small investors should interpret Florida's February numbers as potential market bottom signal.

Markets don't announce bottoms—they're only identified in retrospect.

But when sales rise, pending sales increase, inventory stabilizes, and price declines slow simultaneously, those indicators suggest worst is past.

The 4.8-months' supply for single-family homes creates opportunity for rental property investors.

That supply level prevents rapid price appreciation but avoids the bidding war environment that pushes cap rates to unsustainable lows.

Investors can acquire properties without extreme competition while rents remain stable from sustained population base.

Min 5:

Anyone looking to invest in Florida should focus on single-family properties over condo-townhouses given the 9.3-months' supply imbalance in that segment.

When one property type shows 4.8 months' supply while another shows 9.3 months, capital flows to the segment with tighter fundamentals.

Florida's improvement comes as mortgage rates recently dipped below 6% before the Iran war pushed them back to 6.11%.

Even at current rates, financing costs sit dramatically below the 7%+ levels that froze the market in 2023-2024. Lower rates remove a major buying impediment.

The spring selling season typically drives Florida volume as northern buyers seek warm-weather properties and snowbirds convert seasonal rentals to permanent purchases.

February's improvement positions the market for stronger March-April-May activity if mortgage rates stabilize or decline.

NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun noted that "housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding."

That national observation applies especially to Florida where price easing combined with rate improvements creates the strongest affordability environment since early 2022.

Takeaway:

Florida closed sales of single-family homes jumped 3.9% year-over-year in February 2026 to 18,379 transactions while condo-townhouse sales rose 8.6% to 7,060 according to Florida Realtors data released March 16.

Pending sales also increased, signaling buyers increasingly committing to purchases after prolonged Sun Belt downturn.

The statewide supply of single-family existing homes stood at 4.8-months' supply while condo-townhouses reached 9.3-months' supply.

That divergence indicates single-family properties approaching balanced market conditions while condos face continued oversupply pressure.

Florida Realtors Chief Economist Brad O'Connor said the market "has at the very least bottomed out in terms of sales and is inching its way back upward." Looking at 2026 trends, he expects "a more normal level of listings coming on to the market with slightly improved numbers of pending sales."

The recovery outpaces national trends—Florida's 3.9% single-family increase exceeded the national 1.7% existing-home sales gain reported by NAR.

But recovery starts from a lower base after Florida experienced steep declines during 2024-2025 correction when Sun Belt oversupply met slowing migration.

Position now to acquire Florida single-family rental properties while supply sits at 4.8 months—tight enough to prevent rapid price appreciation but loose enough to avoid bidding wars.

Focus on markets showing simultaneous rising sales, increasing pending sales, stabilizing inventory, and slowing price declines as these indicators suggest market bottoms forming.

Spring selling season March-May typically drives Florida volume, creating acquisition opportunities before summer heat slows activity. Avoid condo-townhouse segment where 9.3-months' supply indicates continued oversupply pressure.