Trump's DOJ Just Approved the Largest Brokerage Merger by Overruling Its Own Antitrust Staff
Min 1
Compass closed its $4.2 billion acquisition of Anywhere Real Estate on January 9th after DOJ leadership overruled antitrust staff who recommended an in-depth investigation, with the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg reporting that antitrust chief Gail Slater sought extended review but got blocked by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. Compass enlisted Mike Davis, a Trump-aligned lawyer known for advancing mergers, who successfully argued to DOJ officials above Slater that the deal didn't require extended scrutiny according to sources familiar with the matter, and the 30-day HSR Act waiting period expired January 2nd without objections despite the combined firms claiming $415 billion in deal volume in 2024. The merger creates a firm with roughly 340,000 agents that controls over 80% of Manhattan residential sales by dollar volume, exceeds 70% market share in Northern California, and holds more than 60% in Washington DC according to RealTrends data. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden urged DOJ and FTC in December 2025 to block the deal over concerns about broker fees and market concentration, but Compass closed months ahead of the originally projected late-2026 timeline after successfully navigating political channels.
Min 2
The playbook reveals how operators with political connections navigate antitrust scrutiny that would typically block deals exceeding 30% market share thresholds, creating opportunities for regional players who lack such access to consolidate smaller markets while regulators focus on mega-mergers. Compass previously shook the industry with a $444 million deal for Chicago-based @properties and Christie's International Real Estate after steady acquisitions, and CEO Robert Reffkin wrote in an open letter that all 6 distinct Anywhere brands including Corcoran, Sotheby's International Realty, Coldwell Banker, and Century 21 would continue operating independently. The deal brings Anywhere's $184 billion in 2024 sales to Compass's $231 billion, creating a combined brokerage more than double the size of its closest competitor, and industry M&A advisor Steve Murray stated he was surprised FTC and DOJ didn't have strong comments given agencies' own 30% market share guidelines. NextHome co-CEO James Dwiggins predicted the industry will see 3 or 4 major companies control 60% to 70% of residential real estate within 24 months through continued M&A, comparing the trajectory to airline consolidation where United, Delta, and American dominate.
Min 3
A regional brokerage holding 15% to 25% market share in secondary markets like Austin, Nashville, or Phoenix can now pursue aggressive M&A knowing that DOJ leadership under Trump prioritizes deal approval over extended antitrust review, especially if operators hire politically-connected counsel. Compass's market dominance in Manhattan at over 80%, Northern California at 70%-plus, and DC at 60%-plus would typically trigger second requests and potential blocking actions, but the political override demonstrates that deal size and market share matter less than access to decision-makers above career antitrust staff. The Capitol Forum and Capstone analyses showing combined market share far exceeding 30% thresholds got dismissed because Compass successfully argued through Davis that competitive concerns could be addressed without investigation, establishing precedent for future consolidation. Regional operators who build 20% to 30% market share positions in growing Sunbelt metros can pursue roll-up strategies knowing current DOJ leadership favors deal approval, creating a 24-month window before political winds potentially shift in 2027 or 2028.
Min 4
Small operators gain advantage by understanding that antitrust enforcement operates on political cycles rather than consistent legal standards, and Trump administration's preference for deal approval creates favorable M&A climate through at least November 2026 midterms. The Wall Street Journal reported that Compass went over Slater's head to Deputy Attorney General Blanche, demonstrating that career antitrust officials' recommendations get overruled by political appointees when companies deploy proper lobbying channels, and this dynamic favors sophisticated operators who understand DC power structures. State attorneys general including those from New York and California still investigate and could challenge aspects of the deal according to Bloomberg, but states historically struggle to unwind completed mergers even when federal government allows them through. Operators pursuing regional consolidation should structure deals to avoid triggering state-level concerns by maintaining brand independence and avoiding overt pricing coordination, exactly the approach Reffkin outlined in his open letter emphasizing that acquired brands continue operating independently.
Min 5
The democratization opportunity emerges because small regional operators can now pursue market share dominance in secondary markets while federal antitrust enforcement focuses political capital on mega-mergers like Compass-Anywhere that generate headlines. Dwiggins's prediction of 3 to 4 companies controlling 60% to 70% of residential real estate within 24 months suggests massive consolidation wave creating acquisition targets for operators who build regional platforms worth $100 million to $500 million in deal volume. The precedent Compass established—hiring Trump-aligned counsel to bypass career antitrust staff and secure leadership approval—provides a roadmap for mid-sized brokerages pursuing transformative M&A that would previously face extended review. Operators who close deals in 2026 during favorable political climate benefit from completed transactions that become difficult to unwind even if enforcement tightens in future administrations, exactly the strategy Compass executed by closing 18 months ahead of schedule.
Takeaway
Compass closed its $4.2 billion Anywhere acquisition after DOJ leadership overruled antitrust staff who sought extended review, with Trump-aligned lawyer Mike Davis successfully bypassing antitrust chief Gail Slater to secure approval from Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. The combined firm controls over 80% of Manhattan residential sales, 70%-plus of Northern California, and 60%-plus of DC, creating a brokerage double the size of its nearest competitor with $415 billion in 2024 deal volume. Industry insiders predict 3 to 4 companies will control 60% to 70% of U.S. residential real estate within 24 months, creating aggressive consolidation window for regional operators who understand current DOJ leadership prioritizes deal approval over extended antitrust review. The window for favorable M&A climate lasts through at least November 2026 midterms before political dynamics potentially shift, rewarding operators who close transformative acquisitions now rather than waiting for enforcement to tighten in future administrations.
